Research note: multi-layered chinese engagement and the “patchwork” of autonomy in Timor-Leste

Main Article Content

Takayasu Goto https://orcid.org/0009-0009-1923-3633

Keywords

Abstract

Timor-Leste, the first new nation of the 21st century, faces a paradox. Although it achieved diplomatic milestones, joining the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 2025 and the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2024, the government is facing a critical domestic crisis: the “resource curse” of dwindling revenues (Scheiner, 2022). Desperate for survival, the nation-state has adopted a pragmatic strategy of securing support from various international actors. This paper discusses China’s growing presence in this strategy, examining it not merely as a geopolitical alignment but as a multi-layered process. Timor-Leste actively engages with China’s “Global Initiatives” triad, utilizing infrastructure projects under the Global Development Initiative (GDI) and aligning with the broader narratives of the Global Civilization Initiative (GCI) and Global Security Initiative (GSI). This approach is explicitly endorsed by President Ramos-Horta in the 2024 Joint Statement between China and Timor-Leste (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, 2024). This research note argues that Timor-Leste’s diplomacy transcends strategic “hedging” (Cheng-Chwee, 2008), by providing an overview of strategic infrastructure projects such as Tasi Mane; soft power instruments ranging from medical teams to education; and the economic impact of Chinese migrants. Instead, the author posits that it is a state-building “patchwork”: a desperate yet pragmatic accumulation of external support designed to maintain autonomy amidst great power competition.

Abstract 0 | pdf (Portuguese) Downloads 0

References

AFP. (2023, March 15). Timor-Leste: School education project with Portugal to be expanded. Macau Business.

Asian Development Bank. (2025, September 30). ADB forecasts 3.8% economic growth for Timor-Leste in 2025. Asian Development Bank.

Autoridade Nacional do Petróleo (ANP). (2025, June 14). Bayu-Undan cessation of production. https://www.anp.tl/bayu-undan-cessation-of-production/

Berlie, J. A. (2016). Chinese in East Timor: Identity, society and economy. HumaNetten, 35(35), 37–49. https://doi.org/10.15626/hn.20153503

Bovensiepen, J., & Nygaard-Christensen, M. (2018). Petroleum planning as state building in Timor-Leste. The Asia Pacific Journal of Anthropology, 19(5), 412–431. https://doi.org/10.1080/14442213.2018.1513060

Cardoso, J. da C. (2023, October 11). Why did Timor-Leste sign a comprehensive strategic partnership with China? The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2023/10/what-did-timor-leste-sign-a-comprehensive-strategic-partnership-with-china/

Casey, J. (2025, November 26). MPRM and Woodside sign agreement for Greater Sunrise. LNG Industry. https://www.lngindustry.com/liquid-natural-gas/26112025/mprm-and-woodside-sign-agreement-for-greater-sunrise/

Castro Seixas, P., Canas Mendes, N., & Lobner, N. (2023). Is there an endless search for new (overseas) younger brother(s)? Timor-Leste and its ecumenic ambitions. In The paradox of ASEAN centrality: Timor-Leste betwixt and between (pp. 75–99). BRILL. https://doi.org/10.1163/9789004522923_006

Chellaney, B. (2017, January 23). China’s Debt-Trap Diplomacy. Project Syndicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-one-belt-one-road-loans-debt-by-brahma-chellaney-2017-01

Cheng-Chwee, K. (2008). The Essence of Hedging: Malaysia and Singapore’s Response to a Rising China. Contemporary Southeast Asia: A Journal of International and Strategic Affairs, 30(2), 159–185. https://doi.org/10.1355/CS30-2A

Chew, D., & Huang, J. S. (2014). The Timorese Hakka in Australia: Community and the Internet [Research Note]. In W. Der Shu (Ed.), Global Hakka Studies (全球客家研究): 2 (May, pp. 301–336). College of Hakka Studies, National Chiao Tung University.

China Global Television Network (CGTN). (2025, May 30). Timor-Leste president: World would be much worse without China [Broadcast]. CGTN.

CNA. (2025, April 10). It’s difficult to compete with them: Residents in Timor Leste on China’s growing presence [Video] [Broadcast]. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhzW8zQSCvI

Cummins, D., & Boavida dos Santos, A. (2024). Lessons in Localisation: International Intervention in Timor-Leste from 1999-2023. In M. Quinn, M. Barreto-Soares, R. L. Williams, C. Fernandes, Z. Pereira, L.-A. Blanchard, K. Tsuchiya, G. Neves, L.-L. Chen, H. Loney, & M. Leach (Eds.), New Research On Timor-Leste Proceedings of The 2023 Timor-Leste Studies Association Conference (Vol. 1, pp. 17–22). Timor-Leste Studies Association and Swinburne University of Technology.

Dougherty, R. (2026, January 30). Prime Minister Anthony Albanese recently travelled to Dili in Timor-Leste for an official visit from 28 to 29 January to meet with His Excellency President Dr José Ramos-Horta and His Excellency Prime Minister Kay Rala Xanana Gusmão. Cyberdaily.Au. https://www.cyberdaily.au/government/13158-cyber-security-a-key-part-of-new-australia-timor-leste-partnership

Embassy of China in Timor-Leste. (2024, February 9). 中国驻东帝汶大使馆举办“温暖迎春,共庆中国年”新春招待会 [Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste hosts “Warm Welcome to Spring, Celebrating Chinese New Year” Reception]. Embassy of China in Timor-Leste. https://tl.china-embassy.gov.cn/chn/sgdt/202402/t20240209_11244721.htm

Embassy of China in Timor-Leste. (2025, October 16). Ambassador Wang Wenli Attends the Welcoming and Farewell Ceremony of the Chinese Medical Team to Timor-Leste. Embassy of China in Timor-Leste. https://tl.china-embassy.gov.cn/eng/xwdt/202510/t20251016_11734786.htm

Fellbrich, J. (2025). Regional development implications of the Belt and Road Initiative – a case study of Darwin. Regional Studies, Regional Science, 12(1), 895–908. https://doi.org/10.1080/21681376.2025.2578943

Fernandes, A., Prabawa, T. S., & Therik, W. M. A. (2022). The Livelihood of Chinese Migrants in Timor-Leste. Social Sciences, 11(4). https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci11040157

Fundasaun Mahein. (2023). The China-Timor-Leste Strategic Partnership and Growing International Competition: Opportunities and Risks. https://www.fundasaunmahein.org/2023/10/19/the-china-timor-leste-strategic-partnership-and-growing-international-competition-opportunities-and-risks/

Government of Timor-Leste. (2011). Timor-Leste Strategic Plan 2011-2030

Government of Timor-Leste. (2012, April 4). Government inaugurates building of the Ministry of Defense and Security and the F-FDTL Headquarters. Government of Timor-Leste. https://timor-leste.gov.tl/?p=6784&lang=en

Government of Timor-Leste. (2013). International Conference on Administrative Decentralization and Local Government. Government of Timor-Leste. https://timor-leste.gov.tl/?p=8404&lang=en#:~:text=Kay%20Rala%20Xanana%20Gusm%C3%A3o%20also,officials%2C%20students%20and%20civil%20society.

Government of Timor-Leste. (2024, January 23). Chinese NGO offers 10 tons of dengue protection equipment. Government of Timor-Leste. https://timor-leste.gov.tl/?p=35821&lang=en&n=1

Government of Timor-Leste. (2025, November 25). New Era of Cooperation Dawns for Greater Sunrise. Government of Timor-Leste. https://timor-leste.gov.tl/?p=46200&lang=en

Government of Timor-Leste. (2026, January 28). Timor-Leste and Australia establish New Partnership for a New Era. Government of Timor-Leste. https://timor-leste.gov.tl/?p=47105&lang=en&n=1

GX Foudation. (2025, February 19). Launch of the “Timor-Leste Youth Development Programme.” GX Foundation. https://gxfoundation.hk/en/news/detail/launch-of-the-timor-leste-youth-development-programme#:~:text=Launch%20of%20the%20%E2%80%9CTimor%2DLeste%20Youth%20Development%20Programme%E2%80%9D,and%20conducted%20on%2Dsite%20inspections.

GX Foundation. (2024, October 31). “Direct Potable Water Project” launched in Timor-Leste. GX Foundation. https://gxfoundation.hk/en/news/detail/direct-potable-water-project-launched-in-timor-leste

Horta, M. L. da S. (2024, October 28). How Chinese investment is shaping Timor-Leste’s future. Macao. https://macaomagazine.net/chinese-investment-timor-leste/

Horta, M. L. S. D. S. (2012). China’s Relations with Portuguese-speaking Countries A Growing but Unnoticed Relation [Master’s thesis, Naval Postgraduate School]. https://hdl.handle.net/10945/17351

Huang, J. (2024, November 5). What drives China’s economic engagement in Timor-Leste? Think China.

Huber, J. (2021). At the Periphery of Nanyang: The Hakka Community of Timor-Leste. In Sinophone Southeast Asia (pp. 52–90). BRILL. https://doi.org/10.1163/9789004473263_004

Institute of Business (IOB). (2023, September 12). The Institute of Business held an Opening Ceremony for Chinese Language Class at IOB Plaza Hall. IOB News. IOB News

Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). (2024). The Project on Strategic Port Development Master Plan in Timor-Leste (Final Report).

Kammen, D., & Chen, J. (2019). Cina Timor: Baba, Hakka, and Cantonese in the Making of Timor-Leste. Yale University Southeast Asia Studies [Yale Southeast Asia Monograph Series 67].

Kono, K. (2025, October 18). 独立23年、ついにASEAN加盟 東ティモール大統領インタビュー [23 years after independence, finally joining ASEAN: Interview with Timor-Leste President]. The Asahi Shimbun. https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASTBK3FLFTBKUHBI01JM.html

Lusa. (2025, November 24). Timor-Leste: Greater Sunrise gas must be processed in-country. Lusa. https://www.lusa.pt/lusanews/article/2025-11-24/46084077/timor-leste-greater-sunrise-gas-must-be-processed-in-country

Lusa. (2026, February 8). ONG ajuda médicos de Timor-Leste a realizarem internatos em Hong Kong e Macau. Lusa. https://www.lusa.pt/lusofonia/article/2026-02-08/46513989/ong-ajuda-m%C3%A9dicos-de-timor-leste-a-realizarem-internatos-em-hong-kong-e-macau

Marcos, E. E., Nogalo, R. M., Gunayan, F. M., Monday, K. J., & Aperocho, M. D. (2026). Demystifying Ambiguity: A Forensic Discourse Analysis of Senate Bill No. 2868 or The Anti-Pogo Act. International Journal of Linguistics and Translation Studies, 7(1), 55–71. https://doi.org/10.36892/ijlts.v7i1.602

Melt Water, & We Are Social. (2024). Digital 2024: TIMOR-LESTE. https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2024-timor-leste

Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (MOFCOM). (2024). 对外投资合作国别(地区)指南:东帝汶 2024年版 [Guide for Foreign Investment and Cooperation: Country (Region) Guide for Timor-Leste (2024 Edition)]. https://mo.zos.esurfingcloud.com/yga-chinaplp/pdf/6/10/xdxkfjjbh2r3t9jm27c2.pdf

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China. (2022, February 28). Upholding Equity and Justice to Promote Sound Development of the Global Human Rights Cause. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China. https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/wjbzhd/202405/t20240527_11312251.html

Ministry of Foreign Affairs People’s Republic of China. (2024, July 29). Joint Statement between the People’s Republic of China and the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste on Strengthening Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Ministry of Foreign Affairs People’s Republic of China. https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/xw/zyxw/202407/t20240730_11462823.html

Needham, K. (2023, September 29). Timor president says China military cooperation “never discussed.” Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/timor-president-says-china-military-cooperation-never-discussed-2023-09-29/

Nevins, J. (2002). The Making of “Ground Zero” in East Timor in 1999: An Analysis of International Complicity in Indonesia’s Crimes. Asian Survey, 42(4), 623–641. https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2002.42.4.623

O’Connor, A. (2025, November 28). ‘Greater Sunrise gas must be processed in Timor-Leste’: Gusmão. The Macao News. https://macaonews.org/news/lusofonia/timor-greater-sunrise-gas-processing/

Presidência da República Democrática de Timor-Leste. (2025, April 30). President Ramos-Horta and GX Foundation Chair Leung Chun-Ying Strengthen Health and Education Partnership in Timor-Leste. Presidência Da República Democrática de Timor-Leste. https://presidenciarepublica.tl/president-ramos-horta-and-gx-foundation-chair-leung-chun-ying-strengthen-health-and-education-partnership-in-timor-leste/

Rajalingam, G., Denney, L., & Soares, A. (2025). Local impacts of foreign interests in Timor-Leste. https://www.xcept-research.org/publication/local-impacts-of-foreign-interests-in-timor-leste/

Remeikis, A. (2018, June 13). Australia supplants China to build undersea cable for Solomon Islands. The Guardian.

Rosario, A. M. Do, & Novaria, R. (2025). Analysis of the Implementation of Administrative Decentralization in Dili, Timor Leste. Journal of Social Interactions and Humanities, 4(1), 355–370. https://doi.org/10.55927/jsih.v4i1.21

Sahin, S. B. (2014). Timor-Leste’s foreign policy: Securing state identity in the post-independence period. Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 33(2), 3–25. https://doi.org/10.1177/186810341403300201

Scheiner, C. (2021). Timor-Leste economic survey: The end of petroleum income. Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, 8(2), 253–279. https://doi.org/10.1002/app5.333

Scheiner, C. (2022). The resource curse in Timor-Leste. Estudios de Asia y África, 477–518. https://doi.org/10.24201/eaa.v57i3.2785

Soares, L. “Mica” B. (2021a). Overseas Chinese, soft power and China’s people-to-people diplomacy in Timor-Leste. In The China Alternative (pp. 473–498). ANU Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1h45mkn.20

Soares, L. “Mica” B. (2021b). Overseas Chinese, soft power and China’s people-to-people diplomacy in Timor-Leste. In The China Alternative (pp. 473–498). ANU Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1h45mkn.20

Soares, L. “Mica” B. (2023). Economic diversity in contemporary Timor-Leste. In K. Silva, L. Palmer, & T. Cunha (Eds.), Economic diversity in contemporary Timor-Leste. Leiden University Press. https://doi.org/10.24415/9789087283957

Tatoli. (2023a, January 22). ACCCTO pledges to support economic development in Timor-Leste. https://en.tatoli.tl/2023/01/22/acccto-pledges-to-support-economic-development-in-timor-leste/

Tatoli. (2023b, March 9). ACCCTO preparadu rekonstrui edifísiu eskola andár ida iha eis eskola Xina.

Tatoli. (2026, January 28). Dili and Canberra accelerate talks on Greater Sunrise development. https://en.tatoli.tl/2026/01/28/albaneses-dili-visit-reinforces-push-for-greater-sunrise-development/

The Macao News. (2025, October 3). Timor-Leste abruptly shuts down online gambling. https://macaonews.org/news/lusofonia/timor-leste-online-gambling-2/

Timor Gap, E.P. (n.d.). South Coast Project. Retrieved February 9, 2026, from https://www.timorgap.com/our-business/south-coast-project/

United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). (2025). Strategic infiltration of vulnerable jurisdictions through criminal foreign direct investments.

Watanabe, S. (2025). Global Development Initiative: China’s new approach to the international order. East Asian Studies: China and Its Neighboring Region. https://doi.org/10.30402/EAS.20250656(1).0002

World Bank. (2024). GDP per capita (current US$) – Timor-Leste. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=TL

World Food Programme (WFP). (2024). Annual country report 2023 – China. https://www.wfp.org/operations/annual-country-report?operation_id=CN02&year=2023

World Trade Organization. (2023). Member profile: Timor-Leste.

Xinhua. (2023a, September 23). China, Timor-Leste elevate ties to comprehensive strategic partnership. The State Council of the People’s Republic of China. https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202309/23/content_WS650eb3a8c6d0868f4e8dfb24.html

Xinhua. (2023b, September 23). Full Text: Joint Statement between the People’s Republic of China and the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste on Establishing Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. The State Council of the People’s Republic of China. https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202309/23/content_WS650eced8c6d0868f4e8dfb32.html

Zhang, R., Peng, Y., Cui, Y., & Zhao, M. (2026, January 30). Ambassador of Timor-Leste hails China’s commitment to create a more equitable global landscape. People’s Daily Online.

Zhang, Y., & Ji, T. (2023). Youth are united online to fight against involution: a study of group cohesion on Weibo. Frontiers in Psychology, 14. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1014331

Zheng, X., Lyu, L., Lu, H., Hu, Y., & Chan, G. (2021). The internationalization of TCM towards Portuguese-speaking countries. Chinese Medicine, 16(1), 81. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13020021-00491-6